巴菲特與蒙格金玉良言

        雖然我是以數據分析為導向並以量化投資為主,但不表示我反對那些憑主觀分析而去投資的價值投資人,事實上,我的投資組合內也有一小部分是採用主觀交易,也就是從大量及細部閱讀財報並找出那些價格顯著被低估的公司
,只是我對於我的量化投資模型比我對主觀交易還更有信心,所以才以量化投資為主我主觀的認為,要能達到最高的年化報酬率,還是得從自行選股著手,當然,要獲得最差的長期報酬率,也是透過自行選股! 我知道許多量化交易者非常排斥自選股投資,但我認為這不是客觀的看法,畢竟量化交易也有它的許多缺陷(見此),對於那些只完全相信量化交易的投資人,不彷看看傳奇量化投資人Ed Thorp現在的投資組合吧!目前僅持有波克夏與一些對沖基金,他認為波克夏是他最重要的持股。(請見Barron的訪問)

 傳奇價值投資人Joel Greenblatt曾在1985-1995年採用自選股的方式締造了50%的年化報酬率(見你也可以成為股市天才一書附錄)。巴菲特的波克夏報酬率也曾在1976年初至1985年底締造了50.65%的年化報酬率();巴菲特過去說過: “The highest rates of return I've ever achieved were in the 1950s. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers. But I was investing peanuts then. It's a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that."
(翻譯:我曾在1950年代創造最高的投資報酬率,完全擊潰道瓊指數,你應該去看看那些數字。但那時我投入的是小資金,小資金具有非常大的結構優勢,我認為若我只管理1百萬美金,我應能夠賺取50%的年化報酬率,不,我保證如此。)由於我們最早只找得到巴菲特195719581959這三年的報酬率,所以還是就姑且相信巴菲特吧!

量化交易界最著名就是Jim Simons的大獎章基金,此基金報酬率在Bloomberg這篇報導影片中有提到(見此),報酬率相當驚人,但是否運用了大量的借貸槓桿,我們就不得而知了。這也是我主觀認為,長期下來,最優秀的自選股投資人與最優秀的量化投資人,在不運用槓桿的情況下,我傾向相信最優秀的自選股投資人可以取得更好的報酬率。由於如此,每當巴菲特與他的副手蒙格說了什麼的時候,我也會張大耳朵仔細聆聽。本篇摘錄了他們兩人過往幾則的金玉良言,我希望用最少的句子以體現他們對投資及生活的看法,當然以15則句子是無法表達完全的,所以對於那些希望多吸收他們過去說了些什麼話的讀者,建議可以看看兩本由他們所寫或所述的收錄集(巴菲特寫給股東的信&窮查理的普通常識),並於未來多加留意他們兩人又說了什麼,讓我們能多加學習。由於翻譯功力較差,可能造成反效果,所以就僅分類後貼上原文,讓各位學習兩位大師的智慧。

價值投資

1.      Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that Price is what you pay; value is what you get. Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.(Warren Buffett)
2.      Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.(Warren Buffett)
3.      It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.(Warren Buffett)

能力圈

4.      You don’t have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.(Warren Buffett)

風險

5.      Investing is an activity in which consumption today is foregone in an attempt to allow greater consumption at a later date. “Risk” is the possibility that this objective won’t be attained.(Warren Buffett)
6.      Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing(Warren Buffett)

分散或集中

7.      Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense for those who know what they’re doing.(Warren Buffett)

耐心

8.      Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time;You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.(Warren Buffett)

短期虧損的心理面

9.      If you’re going to be in this game for the long pull, which is the way to do it, you better be able to handle a 50% decline without fussing too much about it. And so my lesson to all of you is conduct your life so that you can handle the 50% decline with aplomb and grace. Don’t try to avoid it. It will come. In fact, I would say if it doesn’t come, you’re not being aggressive enough.(Charlie Munger)

投資機會

10.  You know the good ideas that I’ve had in my life are quite few. But the lesson I can give you is a few is all you need and don’t be disappointed. When you find the few of course, you’ve got to act aggressively(Charlie Munger)
11.  Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.(Warren Buffett)

用人

12.  Somebody once said that in looking for people to hire, you look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence, and energy. And if you don’t have the first, the other two will kill you. You think about it; it’s true. If you hire somebody without integrity, you really want them to be dumb and lazy.(Warren Buffett)

職涯

13.  In the world of business, the people who are most successful are those who are doing what they love.(Warren Buffett)

挫折

14.  Whenever you think that some situation or some person is ruining your life, it’s actually you who are ruining your life. It’s such a simple idea. Feeling like a victim is a perfectly disastrous way to go through life. If you just take the attitude that however bad it is in anyway, it’s always your fault and you just fix it as best you can(Charlie Munger)

擇偶

15.  Patience combined with opportunity is a great thing to have. My grandfather taught me that opportunity is infrequent and one has to be ready when it strikes. That's what Berkshire is. It's amazing how fast Berkshire acts when we find opportunity. You can't be timid -- and that applies to all of life. You can't be timid in marriage when you find the right spouse. It might be your only opportunity to be happy in life. Too many people don't act when they should. That's why half of all marriages don't work out.(Charlie Munger)