股票比債券危險?以S&P 500與美國公債為例
一般人總認為錢放銀行比較安全,或乾脆買政府的短期或長期公債;相反地對股票又愛又恨,覺得買股票很投機,不是一種妥當的理財方法,這樣的觀點在我們生活中很常見,但是股票真的有這麼可怕嗎?
奇怪的是,每當股市過熱或偏高時,大眾就認為投資很簡單,股市其實安全又穩定,把股票當作是穩穩的定存股;在股市處於低點或蕭條時期,就認為最好不要碰股市,那是危險投機的地方。
我還記得2016年4月,當時台股約8,400點,某天我去銀行移出一筆資金,準備投入股市,銀行櫃檯人員聽聞後,驚訝地問我:「最近股市不是行情很差嗎?」這就是一般民眾或媒體對股市的看法:行情差時不要進場。結果一年多後,經過兩次除息,台股已經來到10,500點了!
不僅一般大眾對股市可能有誤解,即使是具有商管背景、或是長期研究股市的人,某種程度上也可能誤解股市的面貌。本篇以美國股市作為例子,這個全球最大的資本市場歷史悠久,且長期資料保留完整,讓我們有辦法長時間觀察股市;以下S&P500和美國公債的歷史資料,皆取自紐約大學商學院教授AswathDamodaran的網站,我們將利用「滾動報酬率」的計算,呈現給讀者股市長期的面貌。
【表一】1928年初至2016年底 (共89年)
S&P
500、美國3個月國庫券與美國10年期公債的報酬率
Year
|
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
1928
|
43.81%
|
3.08%
|
0.84%
|
1929
|
-8.30%
|
3.16%
|
4.20%
|
1930
|
-25.12%
|
4.55%
|
4.54%
|
1931
|
-43.84%
|
2.31%
|
-2.56%
|
1932
|
-8.64%
|
1.07%
|
8.79%
|
1933
|
49.98%
|
0.96%
|
1.86%
|
1934
|
-1.19%
|
0.32%
|
7.96%
|
1935
|
46.74%
|
0.18%
|
4.47%
|
1936
|
31.94%
|
0.17%
|
5.02%
|
1937
|
-35.34%
|
0.30%
|
1.38%
|
1938
|
29.28%
|
0.08%
|
4.21%
|
1939
|
-1.10%
|
0.04%
|
4.41%
|
1940
|
-10.67%
|
0.03%
|
5.40%
|
1941
|
-12.77%
|
0.08%
|
-2.02%
|
1942
|
19.17%
|
0.34%
|
2.29%
|
1943
|
25.06%
|
0.38%
|
2.49%
|
1944
|
19.03%
|
0.38%
|
2.58%
|
1945
|
35.82%
|
0.38%
|
3.80%
|
1946
|
-8.43%
|
0.38%
|
3.13%
|
1947
|
5.20%
|
0.57%
|
0.92%
|
1948
|
5.70%
|
1.02%
|
1.95%
|
1949
|
18.30%
|
1.10%
|
4.66%
|
1950
|
30.81%
|
1.17%
|
0.43%
|
1951
|
23.68%
|
1.48%
|
-0.30%
|
1952
|
18.15%
|
1.67%
|
2.27%
|
1953
|
-1.21%
|
1.89%
|
4.14%
|
1954
|
52.56%
|
0.96%
|
3.29%
|
1955
|
32.60%
|
1.66%
|
-1.34%
|
1956
|
7.44%
|
2.56%
|
-2.26%
|
1957
|
-10.46%
|
3.23%
|
6.80%
|
Year
|
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
1958
|
43.72%
|
1.78%
|
-2.10%
|
1959
|
12.06%
|
3.26%
|
-2.65%
|
1960
|
0.34%
|
3.05%
|
11.64%
|
1961
|
26.64%
|
2.27%
|
2.06%
|
1962
|
-8.81%
|
2.78%
|
5.69%
|
1963
|
22.61%
|
3.11%
|
1.68%
|
1964
|
16.42%
|
3.51%
|
3.73%
|
1965
|
12.40%
|
3.90%
|
0.72%
|
1966
|
-9.97%
|
4.84%
|
2.91%
|
1967
|
23.80%
|
4.33%
|
-1.58%
|
1968
|
10.81%
|
5.26%
|
3.27%
|
1969
|
-8.24%
|
6.56%
|
-5.01%
|
1970
|
3.56%
|
6.69%
|
16.75%
|
1971
|
14.22%
|
4.54%
|
9.79%
|
1972
|
18.76%
|
3.95%
|
2.82%
|
1973
|
-14.31%
|
6.73%
|
3.66%
|
1974
|
-25.90%
|
7.78%
|
1.99%
|
1975
|
37.00%
|
5.99%
|
3.61%
|
1976
|
23.83%
|
4.97%
|
15.98%
|
1977
|
-6.98%
|
5.13%
|
1.29%
|
1978
|
6.51%
|
6.93%
|
-0.78%
|
1979
|
18.52%
|
9.94%
|
0.67%
|
1980
|
31.74%
|
11.22%
|
-2.99%
|
1981
|
-4.70%
|
14.30%
|
8.20%
|
1982
|
20.42%
|
11.01%
|
32.81%
|
1983
|
22.34%
|
8.45%
|
3.20%
|
1984
|
6.15%
|
9.61%
|
13.73%
|
1985
|
31.24%
|
7.49%
|
25.71%
|
1986
|
18.49%
|
6.04%
|
24.28%
|
1987
|
5.81%
|
5.72%
|
-4.96%
|
Year
|
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
1988
|
16.54%
|
6.45%
|
8.22%
|
1989
|
31.48%
|
8.11%
|
17.69%
|
1990
|
-3.06%
|
7.55%
|
6.24%
|
1991
|
30.23%
|
5.61%
|
15.00%
|
1992
|
7.49%
|
3.41%
|
9.36%
|
1993
|
9.97%
|
2.98%
|
14.21%
|
1994
|
1.33%
|
3.99%
|
-8.04%
|
1995
|
37.20%
|
5.52%
|
23.48%
|
1996
|
22.68%
|
5.02%
|
1.43%
|
1997
|
33.10%
|
5.05%
|
9.94%
|
1998
|
28.34%
|
4.73%
|
14.92%
|
1999
|
20.89%
|
4.51%
|
-8.25%
|
2000
|
-9.03%
|
5.76%
|
16.66%
|
2001
|
-11.85%
|
3.67%
|
5.57%
|
2002
|
-21.97%
|
1.66%
|
15.12%
|
2003
|
28.36%
|
1.03%
|
0.38%
|
2004
|
10.74%
|
1.23%
|
4.49%
|
2005
|
4.83%
|
3.01%
|
2.87%
|
2006
|
15.61%
|
4.68%
|
1.96%
|
2007
|
5.48%
|
4.64%
|
10.21%
|
2008
|
-36.55%
|
1.59%
|
20.10%
|
2009
|
25.94%
|
0.14%
|
-11.12%
|
2010
|
14.82%
|
0.13%
|
8.46%
|
2011
|
2.10%
|
0.03%
|
16.04%
|
2012
|
15.89%
|
0.05%
|
2.97%
|
2013
|
32.15%
|
0.07%
|
-9.10%
|
2014
|
13.52%
|
0.05%
|
10.75%
|
2015
|
1.36%
|
0.21%
|
1.28%
|
2016
|
11.74%
|
0.51%
|
0.69%
|
我們由【表一】的數據,統計出S&P 500相對於美國3個月國庫券與美國10年期公債的勝率:
以每年的資料來看,S&P 500相對於美國3個月國庫券的勝率高達67.42% (也就是89年中,S&P 500勝出60年);S&P 500相對於美國10年期公債的勝率達62.92% (也就是89年中,S&P 500勝出56年)。這代表持有股市一整年,股市的贏面比較大!
那為何大眾總認為股市比較危險?原因無他,因為股市的波動率比較大。若以三者的最大及最小報酬率來看,如【表二】所示:
【表二】1928年初至2016年底 (共89年)
S&P
500、美國3個月國庫券與美國10年期公債的最大/最小年度報酬率
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
|
最小年度報酬率
|
-43.84%
|
0.03%
|
-11.12%
|
最大年度報酬率
|
52.56%
|
14.30%
|
32.81%
|
股市在1931年表現最糟糕,下跌了43.84%;股市在1954年表現最好,上漲了52.56%。對比之下,美國10年期公債的表現穩定的多,而美國3個月國庫券的表現又更穩定,這也是大眾認為股市很危險的原因,因為股市總是大起大落。
上述是持有一年的情形,接下來我們要進一步分檢驗「長期」持有的狀況。
我們將以「滾動報酬率」來分析,以5年滾動報酬率來解釋的話,就是把1928年初至1932年底這個第一個5年當作第一期5年滾動報酬率,而1929年初至1933年底當第二期5年滾動報酬率,以此類推,直到最後一個5年,也就是2012年初至2016年底當作第八十五期5年滾動報酬率。
這樣的分析的好處在於,可以避免任取一段區間就驟下結論,並且能和其他資產類別做比較,是一個比較客觀的分析方式。以下我們都以「滾動報酬率」來分析。
【表三】1928年初至2016年底 (共89年)
S&P
500、美國3個月國庫券與美國10年期公債的5年滾動報酬率
5年滾動報酬率
|
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
1
|
-49.34%
|
14.96%
|
16.44%
|
2
|
-47.16%
|
12.60%
|
17.62%
|
3
|
-43.06%
|
9.50%
|
21.87%
|
4
|
11.58%
|
4.92%
|
21.78%
|
5
|
162.14%
|
2.72%
|
31.25%
|
6
|
85.54%
|
1.94%
|
22.31%
|
7
|
59.93%
|
1.05%
|
25.14%
|
8
|
60.08%
|
0.76%
|
21.03%
|
9
|
-2.55%
|
0.61%
|
22.11%
|
10
|
-35.58%
|
0.53%
|
13.92%
|
11
|
18.73%
|
0.56%
|
14.95%
|
12
|
14.86%
|
0.86%
|
13.05%
|
13
|
38.23%
|
1.21%
|
11.06%
|
14
|
110.18%
|
1.57%
|
9.38%
|
15
|
120.64%
|
1.87%
|
15.13%
|
16
|
94.77%
|
2.10%
|
13.58%
|
17
|
64.62%
|
2.76%
|
12.98%
|
18
|
63.62%
|
3.50%
|
15.28%
|
19
|
57.58%
|
4.32%
|
11.53%
|
20
|
112.83%
|
5.46%
|
7.83%
|
21
|
139.03%
|
6.61%
|
9.27%
|
22
|
123.40%
|
7.53%
|
11.62%
|
23
|
188.09%
|
7.38%
|
10.16%
|
24
|
192.04%
|
7.90%
|
8.22%
|
25
|
153.69%
|
9.05%
|
6.09%
|
26
|
92.26%
|
10.72%
|
10.79%
|
27
|
179.70%
|
10.59%
|
4.15%
|
28
|
105.44%
|
13.10%
|
-1.84%
|
29
|
55.46%
|
14.64%
|
11.07%
|
30
|
83.23%
|
14.32%
|
15.98%
|
31
|
86.60%
|
13.82%
|
14.78%
|
5年滾動報酬率
|
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
32
|
59.20%
|
15.31%
|
19.21%
|
33
|
65.39%
|
15.59%
|
27.02%
|
34
|
85.27%
|
16.55%
|
14.60%
|
35
|
31.71%
|
19.48%
|
15.55%
|
36
|
78.82%
|
21.29%
|
7.59%
|
37
|
61.62%
|
23.82%
|
9.28%
|
38
|
27.39%
|
27.48%
|
0.07%
|
39
|
17.37%
|
30.89%
|
16.00%
|
40
|
48.91%
|
30.52%
|
23.75%
|
41
|
42.84%
|
30.04%
|
29.29%
|
42
|
10.45%
|
31.85%
|
29.77%
|
43
|
-10.80%
|
33.36%
|
39.33%
|
44
|
17.99%
|
32.49%
|
23.64%
|
45
|
27.92%
|
33.03%
|
30.62%
|
46
|
0.20%
|
34.54%
|
28.68%
|
47
|
24.54%
|
34.80%
|
23.17%
|
48
|
99.20%
|
37.50%
|
21.58%
|
49
|
91.55%
|
44.28%
|
13.84%
|
50
|
47.41%
|
57.11%
|
6.20%
|
51
|
90.83%
|
65.90%
|
39.25%
|
52
|
119.19%
|
68.25%
|
44.83%
|
53
|
96.31%
|
67.75%
|
63.63%
|
54
|
95.56%
|
62.12%
|
112.04%
|
55
|
143.17%
|
50.40%
|
143.56%
|
56
|
113.67%
|
43.24%
|
74.29%
|
57
|
103.54%
|
40.60%
|
82.77%
|
58
|
152.11%
|
38.67%
|
89.14%
|
59
|
86.22%
|
38.75%
|
59.83%
|
60
|
104.67%
|
38.20%
|
47.90%
|
61
|
107.92%
|
35.17%
|
70.19%
|
62
|
96.20%
|
30.76%
|
79.60%
|
5年滾動報酬率
|
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
63
|
51.21%
|
25.77%
|
40.34%
|
64
|
114.01%
|
23.39%
|
63.12%
|
65
|
101.60%
|
22.71%
|
43.86%
|
66
|
149.63%
|
24.66%
|
44.62%
|
67
|
191.33%
|
26.78%
|
45.52%
|
68
|
247.56%
|
27.42%
|
45.18%
|
69
|
130.45%
|
27.71%
|
37.15%
|
70
|
65.59%
|
26.07%
|
42.76%
|
71
|
-2.92%
|
22.00%
|
49.48%
|
72
|
-2.91%
|
17.69%
|
30.56%
|
73
|
-11.05%
|
13.99%
|
48.69%
|
74
|
2.50%
|
11.03%
|
31.12%
|
75
|
34.44%
|
12.10%
|
26.64%
|
76
|
81.73%
|
15.40%
|
21.24%
|
77
|
-10.17%
|
16.03%
|
45.06%
|
78
|
2.16%
|
14.78%
|
23.40%
|
79
|
11.89%
|
11.57%
|
30.11%
|
80
|
-1.19%
|
6.61%
|
48.07%
|
81
|
8.56%
|
1.94%
|
38.34%
|
82
|
126.09%
|
0.41%
|
4.70%
|
83
|
103.81%
|
0.33%
|
30.45%
|
84
|
79.92%
|
0.41%
|
21.82%
|
85
|
96.91%
|
0.89%
|
5.71%
|
我們由【表三】統計出S&P 500相對於美國3個月國庫券與美國10年期公債的勝率:
以每個5年的滾動報酬率來看,S&P 500相對於美國3個月國庫券的勝率高達75.29 % (也就是85個5年中,S&P 500勝出64個);S&P 500相對於美國10年期公債的勝率達74.12 % (也就是85個5年中,S&P 500勝出63個),與僅持有1年的情況相比,持有股市5年的勝率提高了。
【表四】1928年初至2016年底 (共89年)
S&P
500、美國3個月國庫券與美國10年期公債最大/最小的5年報酬率
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
|
最小5年報酬率
|
-49.34%
|
0.33%
|
-1.84%
|
最大5年報酬率
|
247.56%
|
68.25%
|
143.56%
|
【表五】1928年初至2016年底 (共89年)
S&P
500、美國3個月國庫券與美國10年期公債的10年滾動報酬率
10年滾動報酬率
|
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
1
|
-6.00%
|
17.19%
|
42.43%
|
2
|
-15.49%
|
13.78%
|
47.20%
|
3
|
-8.86%
|
10.34%
|
47.49%
|
4
|
8.73%
|
5.56%
|
48.71%
|
5
|
68.88%
|
3.26%
|
49.53%
|
6
|
120.30%
|
2.51%
|
40.60%
|
7
|
83.69%
|
1.93%
|
41.47%
|
8
|
121.28%
|
1.98%
|
34.42%
|
9
|
104.82%
|
2.19%
|
33.56%
|
10
|
42.15%
|
2.41%
|
31.15%
|
11
|
131.26%
|
2.68%
|
30.56%
|
12
|
89.08%
|
3.65%
|
27.73%
|
13
|
126.17%
|
4.75%
|
28.03%
|
14
|
231.19%
|
5.95%
|
21.99%
|
15
|
369.58%
|
7.43%
|
24.14%
|
16
|
365.55%
|
8.86%
|
24.11%
|
17
|
267.76%
|
10.50%
|
26.11%
|
18
|
371.37%
|
11.14%
|
26.99%
|
19
|
360.18%
|
12.56%
|
20.70%
|
20
|
439.93%
|
15.00%
|
14.40%
|
21
|
359.57%
|
18.04%
|
21.06%
|
22
|
524.84%
|
18.92%
|
16.25%
|
23
|
491.85%
|
21.45%
|
8.13%
|
24
|
353.99%
|
23.70%
|
20.20%
|
25
|
364.85%
|
24.67%
|
23.04%
|
26
|
258.77%
|
26.02%
|
27.16%
|
27
|
345.27%
|
27.53%
|
24.16%
|
28
|
239.77%
|
30.74%
|
24.69%
|
29
|
188.02%
|
33.62%
|
27.28%
|
30
|
141.34%
|
36.60%
|
34.01%
|
10年滾動報酬率
|
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
31
|
233.69%
|
38.06%
|
23.50%
|
32
|
157.29%
|
42.78%
|
30.27%
|
33
|
110.68%
|
47.36%
|
27.11%
|
34
|
117.45%
|
52.56%
|
32.93%
|
35
|
96.13%
|
55.95%
|
42.99%
|
36
|
155.42%
|
57.73%
|
39.10%
|
37
|
78.51%
|
63.26%
|
41.80%
|
38
|
13.62%
|
70.00%
|
39.43%
|
39
|
38.49%
|
73.42%
|
43.42%
|
40
|
90.48%
|
73.63%
|
61.65%
|
41
|
43.12%
|
74.96%
|
66.36%
|
42
|
37.56%
|
77.74%
|
59.83%
|
43
|
77.68%
|
83.37%
|
69.40%
|
44
|
126.02%
|
91.16%
|
40.75%
|
45
|
88.57%
|
109.01%
|
38.72%
|
46
|
91.21%
|
123.20%
|
79.19%
|
47
|
172.98%
|
126.80%
|
78.39%
|
48
|
291.05%
|
130.66%
|
98.94%
|
49
|
274.61%
|
133.92%
|
141.39%
|
50
|
258.46%
|
136.29%
|
158.66%
|
51
|
307.76%
|
137.63%
|
142.70%
|
52
|
346.15%
|
136.56%
|
164.72%
|
53
|
394.92%
|
132.63%
|
209.48%
|
54
|
264.18%
|
124.95%
|
238.91%
|
55
|
397.69%
|
107.85%
|
260.22%
|
56
|
344.27%
|
93.61%
|
196.61%
|
57
|
299.35%
|
83.85%
|
228.26%
|
58
|
281.22%
|
74.41%
|
165.43%
|
59
|
298.53%
|
71.21%
|
160.71%
|
10年滾動報酬率
|
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
60
|
312.61%
|
69.58%
|
112.77%
|
61
|
419.03%
|
68.50%
|
146.13%
|
62
|
471.59%
|
65.78%
|
161.36%
|
63
|
425.55%
|
60.26%
|
103.74%
|
64
|
393.19%
|
57.59%
|
123.72%
|
65
|
233.82%
|
54.70%
|
105.37%
|
66
|
142.33%
|
52.09%
|
116.18%
|
67
|
182.86%
|
49.20%
|
89.99%
|
68
|
209.15%
|
45.25%
|
115.87%
|
69
|
136.23%
|
41.80%
|
79.83%
|
70
|
122.62%
|
41.33%
|
80.78%
|
71
|
76.42%
|
40.78%
|
81.22%
|
72
|
-12.78%
|
36.56%
|
89.39%
|
73
|
-9.14%
|
30.84%
|
83.48%
|
74
|
14.69%
|
23.87%
|
70.60%
|
75
|
32.84%
|
19.52%
|
87.51%
|
76
|
97.28%
|
17.63%
|
67.72%
|
77
|
103.10%
|
16.51%
|
51.88%
|
78
|
108.20%
|
15.16%
|
60.98%
|
79
|
101.30%
|
12.03%
|
58.50%
|
80
|
94.56%
|
7.57%
|
56.52%
|
我們一樣統計了【表五】中,S&P 500相對於美國3個月國庫券與美國10年期公債的勝率:
從每個10年滾動報酬率來看,S&P 500相對於美國3個月國庫券的勝率高達83.75% (也就是80個10年中,S&P 500勝出67個),S&P 500相對於美國10年期公債的勝率也是83.75% (80個10年中,S&P 500勝出67個),持有股市的勝率比僅持有5年又更提高了。
【表六】1928年初至2016年底 (共89年)
S&P
500、美國3個月國庫券與美國10年期公債最大/最小的10年報酬率
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
|
最小10年報酬率
|
-15.49%
|
1.93%
|
8.13%
|
最大10年報酬率
|
524.84%
|
137.63%
|
260.22%
|
由【表六】我們發現持有股票長達十年,最慘時損失15.49%,雖遜於債券,但最好的報酬率卻高達524.84%,比美債好上許多,甚至是美國10年期公債的兩倍。這也是為什麼說股市看長不看短,而且最好用10年期來看比較準確,比較能看出股市的特性,不僅8成3的報酬表現好過債券,報酬率也毫不遜色。
最後我們要來分析更長的區間,20年滾動報酬率:
【表七】1928年初至2016年底 (共89年)
S&P
500、美國3個月國庫券與美國10年期公債的20年滾動報酬率
20年滾動報酬率
|
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
1
|
117.39%
|
20.33%
|
85.95%
|
2
|
59.79%
|
17.93%
|
88.01%
|
3
|
106.14%
|
15.58%
|
88.84%
|
4
|
260.12%
|
11.84%
|
81.41%
|
5
|
693.03%
|
10.93%
|
85.63%
|
6
|
925.61%
|
11.60%
|
74.50%
|
7
|
575.56%
|
12.63%
|
78.42%
|
8
|
943.05%
|
13.35%
|
70.69%
|
9
|
842.52%
|
15.03%
|
61.20%
|
10
|
667.48%
|
17.76%
|
50.04%
|
11
|
962.77%
|
21.20%
|
58.06%
|
12
|
1081.45%
|
23.26%
|
48.48%
|
13
|
1238.59%
|
27.22%
|
38.44%
|
14
|
1403.56%
|
31.07%
|
46.64%
|
15
|
2082.86%
|
33.93%
|
52.75%
|
16
|
1570.27%
|
37.18%
|
57.82%
|
17
|
1537.55%
|
40.91%
|
56.58%
|
18
|
1501.58%
|
45.30%
|
58.34%
|
19
|
1225.39%
|
50.40%
|
53.63%
|
20
|
1203.07%
|
57.08%
|
53.30%
|
21
|
1433.50%
|
62.96%
|
49.50%
|
22
|
1507.64%
|
69.80%
|
51.45%
|
23
|
1146.92%
|
78.97%
|
37.44%
|
24
|
887.21%
|
88.72%
|
59.78%
|
25
|
811.72%
|
94.42%
|
75.94%
|
26
|
816.39%
|
98.78%
|
76.89%
|
27
|
694.87%
|
108.20%
|
76.06%
|
28
|
286.06%
|
122.26%
|
73.85%
|
29
|
298.86%
|
131.72%
|
82.55%
|
20年滾動報酬率
|
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
30
|
359.72%
|
137.18%
|
116.62%
|
31
|
377.57%
|
141.54%
|
105.45%
|
32
|
253.92%
|
153.77%
|
108.22%
|
33
|
274.34%
|
170.20%
|
115.32%
|
34
|
391.48%
|
191.63%
|
87.10%
|
35
|
269.85%
|
225.95%
|
98.36%
|
36
|
388.40%
|
252.06%
|
149.26%
|
37
|
387.31%
|
270.28%
|
152.97%
|
38
|
344.32%
|
292.13%
|
177.37%
|
39
|
418.78%
|
305.66%
|
246.20%
|
40
|
582.81%
|
310.28%
|
318.12%
|
41
|
483.59%
|
315.75%
|
303.76%
|
42
|
513.72%
|
320.45%
|
323.11%
|
43
|
779.37%
|
326.55%
|
424.26%
|
44
|
723.11%
|
330.01%
|
377.02%
|
45
|
838.51%
|
334.41%
|
399.69%
|
46
|
749.51%
|
332.13%
|
431.49%
|
47
|
990.16%
|
316.97%
|
485.60%
|
48
|
1390.74%
|
302.30%
|
428.03%
|
49
|
1392.92%
|
300.50%
|
529.33%
|
50
|
1379.05%
|
300.70%
|
450.35%
|
51
|
2016.39%
|
300.41%
|
497.35%
|
52
|
2450.14%
|
292.15%
|
591.86%
|
20年滾動報酬率
|
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
53
|
2501.05%
|
272.79%
|
530.52%
|
54
|
1696.12%
|
254.50%
|
658.21%
|
55
|
1561.41%
|
221.54%
|
639.80%
|
56
|
976.63%
|
194.45%
|
541.22%
|
57
|
1029.59%
|
174.31%
|
523.66%
|
58
|
1078.51%
|
153.33%
|
472.98%
|
59
|
841.43%
|
142.77%
|
368.86%
|
60
|
818.53%
|
139.67%
|
284.64%
|
61
|
815.68%
|
137.22%
|
346.04%
|
62
|
398.54%
|
126.38%
|
394.99%
|
63
|
377.53%
|
109.68%
|
273.82%
|
64
|
465.64%
|
95.21%
|
281.66%
|
65
|
343.44%
|
84.90%
|
285.08%
|
66
|
378.07%
|
78.90%
|
262.58%
|
67
|
474.49%
|
73.83%
|
188.56%
|
68
|
543.65%
|
67.26%
|
247.50%
|
69
|
375.53%
|
58.85%
|
185.04%
|
70
|
333.12%
|
52.02%
|
182.96%
|
【表八】1928年初至2016年底 (共89年)
S&P
500、美國3個月國庫券與美國10年期公債最大/最小的20年報酬率
S&P 500
|
3-month
T. Bill
|
10-year
T. Bond
|
|
最小20年報酬率
|
59.79%
|
10.93%
|
37.44%
|
最大20年報酬率
|
2501.05%
|
334.41%
|
658.21%
|
由【表七】及【表八】可以發現,持有S&P 500總共70個20年滾動報酬率中,僅有一次跑輸美國10年期公債,並且全勝美國3個月國庫券;此外,S&P 500最差和最好的報酬率都贏過兩種美國公債。
所以說,持有股市更長期,更能發現它的好,前提是你要能忍受短暫的大幅波動,才能換取良好的報酬。股市短期有很多雜訊,唯有長期才能分析股市的重要訊號,偏偏總是有自稱專家的人在講解每日股市。所以切記,不論分析股市報酬,或是操盤人的水準,都至少應該看10年以上,甚至20年會更好,才有可能客觀的分析,否則你看到的可能只是短期的雜訊而已!
最後,有兩點重要事項要提醒投資人:
1. 上述是針對美國股市與美國公債作分析,其他國家是否都是如此?我們並沒有答案。由於美國的資本市場發展早於多數國家,且資料保留完整,所以可以客觀地長期分析,但多數新興市場並沒有這麼長的資料可供分析,所以請不要將美國股市的現象自動套入別國的股市中,這樣可能會有問題。
2. 長期持有股票優於債券的前提是,你持有的是像S&P 500這樣分散的投資組合,而不是指你隨意挑選幾檔個股,就認為長期下來能得到好結果,那是不對的! 持有少數個股,長期下來,最有可能的下場是你會全部輸光!有興趣的讀者可以參考我的這篇文章。
1. 上述是針對美國股市與美國公債作分析,其他國家是否都是如此?我們並沒有答案。由於美國的資本市場發展早於多數國家,且資料保留完整,所以可以客觀地長期分析,但多數新興市場並沒有這麼長的資料可供分析,所以請不要將美國股市的現象自動套入別國的股市中,這樣可能會有問題。
2. 長期持有股票優於債券的前提是,你持有的是像S&P 500這樣分散的投資組合,而不是指你隨意挑選幾檔個股,就認為長期下來能得到好結果,那是不對的! 持有少數個股,長期下來,最有可能的下場是你會全部輸光!有興趣的讀者可以參考我的這篇文章。